Crude Oil, Copper and Nanotechnology
David Batson - - Fri Feb 22, 1:57AM CST

I went long term bull on stocks in mid 2016. The main reason was Intel cracking what engineers were calling The Wall in semiconductor advancement. They made a one nanonameter gate, which showed mastery of the physical nano-scale.

Up until that point, the smallest features on a computer chip were made by placing a template over a silicon wafer and then bombarding it with light ions to create circuit pathways. It was an amazing process but was always going to run out of shorter and shorter wavelengths.. I was 22 when I first learned about it in 1997 from a fellow ski instructor at Squaw Valley who had recently graduated from the electrical engineering program at Stanford At the time, chip manufacturers were using blue light ions. My friend was very excited about it because they were starting to use violet ions and he was looking for a company to work for that was pushing that barrier.

To make a long story short, he informed me over the course of several fascinating conversations that somewhere around the end of the 2020s, we would run out of light. Meaning, even x-rays would no longer be fine enough to continue the process of doubling features on chips every two years or so, to fulfill Moores Law. We would have to master the ability to manipulate matter on a nanoscale. Thanks to Intel, that has been done.

Its going to create a lot of wealth. It is going to enable the technological revolution to continue into what is being called the Technological Singularity. We are going to be living in a much, much different world 20 years from nowa better world.

Meanwhile, I have been operating as a bear for the last year or so, mostly shorting bitcoin (a trade I reversed last week). There will be more corrections along the way over the next few decades, but I think this one is over. The main reason being the behavior of crude oil and copper this week. These two kings of the industrial commodities have been showing lots of strength in their ever understated ways. Crude oil held strong and rallied past $55 a barrel. Copper broke through $2.90 a pound and definitely seems poised to crack that $3.00 psychological barrier.

On thing I have learned over my 20 year career in stocks and commodities is crude oil and copper provide the best economic reports. If they are strong, the economy is strong. If they are improving in price, the economy is improving in general. I care far less for what the Fed or the New York Times says. I listen to crude and copper and they are saying to get long.